NJDTechnologies

Radio: it's not just a hobby, it's a way of life

Current Operating Frequency and Mode

OFF AIR but QRV after dark tonigth

SCHEDULED ACTIVITY: CQ 474.5 kHz CW by 1015z through sunrise most days, WX permitting

The geomagnetic meltdown begins yielding aurora and bizarre trans-Atlantic reports

– Posted in: 630 Meter Daily Reports, 630 Meters

This session started out very poor.  The Kp was 7, solar wind was in excess of 500 km/s, Bz was pointing south, DST was cratering, and protons were elevated.  It looked like an RF apocalypse.  John, WA3ETD / WG2XKA, was reminded of the Zappa lyric, “And The Northern Lights Commenced To Glow.”  That pretty much sums up the session.  Fortunately it was not a total loss.

Local noise levels were already high and WSPR reports suggested that a scheduled CW-session I was planning was probably not going to yield much so I decided to ride out the event on WSPR.  Apparently the band got better as the night proceeded, bringing significant, even baffling trans-Atlantic reports.

planetary-k-index 030716

 

Kyoto DST 030716

 

Australia DST 030716

 

John, WA3ETD / WG2XKA, still found success during this session in spite of active aurora:

WG2XKA 030716

WG2XKA map 030716

WG2XKA session WSPR activity

 

Neil, W0YSE / WG2XSV, also experienced a successful session in spite of his higher latitude location and active aurora.

WG2XSV 030716

 

Ken, K5DNL / WG2XXM, reports that he was decoded by fifty stations and decoded nine, including reported from DL4RAJ.

WG2XXM 030716

WG2XXM 12-hour WSPR activity

 

Ron, NI7J / WH2XND, reports that he decoded nine stations and was decoded by 58 stations, including DH5RAE and DJ0ABR.  Ron notes that while his reports indicate 5-watts ERP, he expects that his ERP is probably closer to 20-watts ERP.  Arrangements are underway to calibrate instrumentation for better operational metrics.  Having more reliable data will be helpful in the report analysis process.

WH2XND 030716

WH2XND session WSPR activity

 

This interesting trans-Atlantic episode yielded some discussion of the statistics on the RSGB-LF reflector between Rik, OR7T, and Stefan, DK7FC:

ON7YD 030716

DK7FC 030716

ON7YD 030716b

Roelof, PA0RDT, reported that Joe, VO1NA, was visible during the evening.  Its unclear to me what mode we are looking at.  It may be CW but I suspect its a digital mode that has been tested recently on the trans-Atlantic path.

PA0RDT 030716

VO1NA PA0RDT 030716

VO1NA, as reported by PA0RDT

 

In spite of the perceived poor conditions early in the session, participation was high and three new or newer stations were observed receiving during this session: K6VZK, W5KLF, and ZS1JEN.

Regional and continental WSPR breakdown’s follow:

NA 030716

North American 24-hour WSPR activity

 

EU 030716

European 24-hour WSPR activity

 

JA 030716

Japanese 24-hour WSPR activity

 

VK 030716

Australian 24-hour WSPR activity

 

There were no reports on the trans-African path, although ZS1JEN was receiving for what is believed to be his first time on 630-meters.  UA0SNV was present but no reports were found in the WSPRnet database.

Trans-Atlantic activity was high for March during a G2 geomagnetic storm:

DK7FC WG2XKA 030716

DK7FC, as reported by WG2XKA

 

DK7FC WG2XJM 030716

DK7FC, as reported by WG2XXM

 

DK7FC WE2XGR 030716

DK7FC, as reported by WE2XGR

 

DK7FC WA3TTS2 030716

DK7FC, as reported by WA3TTS/2

 

WG2XKA DL4RAJ 030716

WG2XKA, as reported by DL4RAJ

 

WG2XXM DL4RAJ 030716

WG2XXM, as reported by DL4RAJ

 

WH2XDN DL4RAJ 030716

WH2XND, as reported by DL4RAJ

 

WH2XND DH5RAE 030716

WH2XND, as reported by DH5RAE

 

WH2XND DJ0ABR 030716

WH2XND, as reported by DJ0ABR

 

EA8/DL9XJ in the Canary Islands continues to provide reports for stations in Europe.

EA8_DL9XJ 030716

EA8/DL9XJ 24-hour WSPR activity

 

PA3ABK2 EA8_DL9XJ 030716

PA3ABK/2, as reported by EA8/DL9XJ

 

PA0A EA8_DL9XJ 030716

PA0A, as reported by EA8/DL9XJ

 

F6GEX EA8_DL9XJ 030716

F6GEX, as reported by EA8/DL9XJ

 

F1AFJ EA8_DL9XJ 030716

F1AFJ, as reported by EA8/DL9XJ

 

DF2JP EA8_DL9XJ 030716

DF2JP, as reported by EA8/DL9XJ

 

In the Caribbean, Eden, ZF1EJ, and Roger, ZF1RC, provided a lot of reports to stations in North America in spite of the geomagnetic activity.  Eden even reported WH2XCR in Hawaii.

ZF1RC 030716

ZF1RC 24-hour WSPR activity

 

ZF1EJ 030716

ZF1EJ 24-hour WSPR activity

 

WH2XCR ZF1EJ 030716

WH2XCR, as reported by ZF1EJ

 

Laurence, KL7L / WE2XPQ, decided to save the electricity and not transmit during this session.  He reported clouds but is pretty certain that there is visible aurora on the other side.  Laurence did find success, briefly receiving WH2XGP and WH2XCR.

Kl7L 030716

KL7L 24-hour WSPR activity

 

WH2XGP KL7L 030716

WH2XGP, as reported by KL7L

 

WH2XCR KL7L 030716

WH2XCR, as reported by KL7L

 

Merv, K9FD/KH6 / WH2XCR, experienced an impacted path to VK and a JA path that remains closed off.  None of this should be surprising and its nice to see that Merv got the reports that he did from ZF1, VK and KL7, in addition to the mainland US.

WH2XCR 030716

WH2XCR 24-hour WSPR activity

 

WH2XCR VK2XGJ 030716

WH2XCR, as reported by VK2XGJ

 

WH2XCR VK4YB 030716

WH2XCR, as reported by VK4YB

 

In Australia, Phil, VK3ELV, was not reported in Hawaii during this session but received a couple of reports from JH3XCU and TNUKJPM.

VK3ELV TNUKJPM 030716

VK3ELV, as reported by TNUKJPM

 

VK3ELV JH3XCU 030716

VK3ELV, as reported by JH3XCU

 

Additional anecdotes, statistics, comments and information:

The North American 630-meter operator list has been updated and can be viewed here.  I am happy to make additions at any time, so please feel free to send me a note.

Al, WI2XBV / K2BLA, reports that he was hearing strong sidebands on a CW signals near 474.3 kHz before sunrise.  It is presumed that this might have been VE3OT who has been beaconing on 474.5 kHz.  Is anyone else detecting these sidebands which might indicate some type of problem with Mitch’s PA or antenna match?

Jim, W5EST, returns today to provide a discussion entitled, “THREE CATEGORIES OF PROPAGATION PREDICTORS”:

The Saturday March 5 blogpost embarked on a predictor of propagation from Pacific Northwest to Australia (PNW-VK).  Let’s look at the big picture while I’m proceeding with its analysis.

Insightful propagation interpretations help answer the “Why” questions of 630m propagation.  They help us focus on the real mysteries of 630m by explaining the non-mysteries first.  When comparing frequency bands, good interpretations shed light why each band behaves the way it does.  Interpretations should avoid explanations that are physically impossible unless there’s some reason to doubt the way one is using the physics itself.  Cause-and-effect interpretations are likely to talk about space weather, ionospheric structures and compositions and physical properties, and how particles and energetic processes interact with them at various wavelengths.

Propagation predictions, ventured before the actual propagation happens, might use but do plainly go beyond mere after-the-fact propagation interpretation or explanation afterwards.  630m propagation prediction and interpretation challenge us either way. Effective prediction realistically sets our expectations of what’s possible and can guide station preparations and operation so our time is not wasted.

So far in this blog, the propagation predictors I’ve been talking about fall into three categories and combinations of them:

  1. A) Space weather, geomagnetic field indices and storm distributions. One may not be able to predict very far ahead with them, but they offer some physical basis for propagation and reception prediction. Any such predictor that can be proved effective allows the station operator to get the right information beforehand and know what to do with it on short notice.
  2. B) Calendar-based predictors involve seasons and calendar date intervals. Calendar-based predictors can provide useful predictions months ahead of time. Such predictors can encourage new stations to begin operations. Both new and existing stations can prepare antennas and equipment to enjoy 630m propagation opportunities based on such useful predictive information.  Calendar-based predictors are based on planetary orientation toward the Sun and large-scale overall physical effects on the ionosphere. Consequently they are unlikely to provide effective day-to-day predictions once a calendar date interval commences.  Moreover, it can take years to prove that a calendar-based predictor based on evidence from one year will actually work another year.

The Feb. 29 blog analyzed 630m daytime propagation predictors. There it showed useful results based on the last several months of daytime data.  Two candidates got on deck:  1) a Nov. 1-Jan. 15 calendar-based predictor, and 2) a mixed predictor that went on to rule out from the period Nov. 1 to Jan. 15 those days with M1 or higher solar flare activity.

  1. C) Prediction of one path based on another path. This is the type of predictor this blog described in the March 5 workplan for PNW-VK propagation.

  IF PNW-Hawaii decodes>= 4 w/ SNRs >= -11dB during 0830-1100z on date 

        THEN PNW to SE-VK PROP(Date)=TRUE.

This type of predictor, if it can be proved up, uses PNW-Hawaii information assembled the same night as the PNW-VK path being predicted. It assumes there exists some good reason to think that good conditions on PNW-Hawaii path accompany good conditions for PNW-VK. It bypasses the physics and uses radio data for propagation prediction.  Suppose multi-hop is the basis for both PNW-Hawaii and PNW-VK. If so, one can tell as a matter of hop geometry at the outset that not all multi-hop modes PNW-VK may use will necessarily be available to PNW-Hawaii prop.  In general, prediction of a longer path based on a shorter path on the same great circle is an uncertain but interesting project.

I hope that these general remarks can encourage your thinking about different types of 630m propagation predictors and their inherent best-case capabilities. If you can think of any other big categories of propagation predictors, drop us a line! In the meantime, I’m assembling information on PNW-Hawaii and PNW-VK from last fall to present in a future blog post.

 

Additions, corrections, clarifications, etc?  Send me a message on the Contact page or directly to KB5NJD <at> gmail dot (com)!