Last night was a very good session in North American, Asia and Europe. Many stations reported “record” sessions with plentiful trans-Atlantic and trans-Pacific propagation. In Europe, the “all land” path to UA0SNV was open, with three stations reported by Vasily. There is a lot to report today so I will do my best to be brief.
Geomagnetic conditions were quiet through this session but Solarham is forecasting a K of 5 in the coming days so are these good conditions a precursor to upcoming active conditions?
John, WA3ETD / WG2XKA, reports a record session and provided the following comments and map:
Neil, W0YSE/7 / WG2XSV, reports very good conditions early and provided two sets of statistics, one prior to 0600z and the other from later in the session.
Ken, K5DNL / WG2XXM, received a report from John, F1AFJ, during this session. Ken provided the following map and station details for John:
Mike, WA3TTS, reports a strong night to the Northwest but limited reports from WH2XCR.
Doug. K4LY / WH2XZO, has been travelling and laments missing some of the great activity over the previous week.
Larry, W7IUV / WH2XGP, received a number of reports from JA1NQI-2, representing the third consecutive session of that path’s opening. Ron, NI7J / WH2XND, provided a map capture on Larry’s behalf.
Ward, K7PO / WH2XXP, experienced a strong session, with 51 unique stations reporting his signal. Ron, NI7J / WH2XND, provided a map capture on Ward’s behalf.
WSPR participation was very high, with 82 MF WSPR stations observed at 0345z on the WSPRnet activity page. I suspect that number was significantly higher as the evening progressed based on regional map views over the 24-hour period. Two new or newer stations were observed: KC6WFS and WY1R. WY1R was reporting the old frequency of 503.9 kHz. An email was sent this morning and Ron reports that he will try again tonight. He is located in New York City, so noise is likely very high but I suspect its not unreasonable for him to decode strong stations in the Northeast.
Regional and continental WSPR breakdown’s follow:
There were no reports from the trans-African path during this session.
UA0SNV has once again reported three stations from continental western Europe over a very long land path.
EA8/DL9XJ provided a large number of reports for stations in Europe. EA8/LA3JJ was reported as listening, but no reports were found in the WSPRnet database.
The trans-Atlantic path was active with numerous stations receiving reports.
Eden, ZF1EJ, was the only station present from the Caribbean during this session, reporting stations across North America as well as WH2XCR in Hawaii.
Laurence, KL7L / WE2XPQ, continues to have very good success with the path into Japan. He was also reported by WB0VAK and reported WG2XXM and WG2XIQ during this session, often indicative of pretty good propagation. KL7L was designated as receive-only.
In the Pacific, Merv, K9FD/KH6 / WH2XCR, had another very consistent session, in spite of the JA path being cut off again. The path to Australia and mainland US, particularly the Northeastern US, was strong.
In Australia, Phil, VK3ELV, and Roger, VK4YB, received DX reports from Japan and Hawaii.
Finally, Jim, W5EST, provides part 2 of a very interesting discussion entitled, “TESTABLE RULE OF THUMB FOR N.Am.-VK PROPAGATION?”:
“The Feb. 23 blog outlined how a 4-quadrant diagram can be used to test propagation predictions. In the Feb. 29 blog, this method was used with actual 630m daytime propagation data.
Today I outline a workplan not for daytime prop, but instead for one category of nighttime long paths: from Pacific Northwest (PNW) to SE Australia. Please critique this workplan and e-mail us if you see some flaw or improvement to make.
Plan of Work: PNW to SE-VK, 630m WSPR Predictor
1) Tabulate 2015 dates of reported 630m propagation PNW to SE-VK by combining information from the following sources:
–Find KB5NJD blog mention of at least one instance of PNW to SE-VK propagation, starting 8/1/2015. Use search feature in upper right corner to search the blog on keyword “VK” or “Australia”. Then doublecheck each blog article having that keyword. http://njdtechnologies.net/the-daytime-surprises-on-630-meters-continue/
—600MRG: Check for any entries referring somehow to PNW to SE-VK propagation and add each date of occurrence starting 8/1/2015.
— Cherry-pick W5EST propagation notes for dates of PNW to SE-VK propagation assembled from the WSPR database and ON4KST reflector starting 8/1/2015. These notes also show PNW decodes in Hawaii.
2) Tabulate 2015 dates of VK thunderstorm activity in the eastern half of Australia.
My log summarized daily views of http://wwlln.net/WWLLN_movies/Movie_of_Lightning_in_Pacific_BIG.gif
3) Start with this 630m predictor (proposed on 600mrg reflector 8/22/15):
IF PNW-Hawaii decodes*>= 4 w/ SNRs >= -11dB** during 0830-1100z on date
THEN PNW to SE-VK PROP(Date)=TRUE.
Note: 0830-1100z is the first half of the PNW-vk time window. If no active Hawaii RX, try for VK anyhow.
*Expect no 630m VK decodes this night if no 630m VK RX is active that has ever decoded N.Am. See WSPR database for RX activity by VK2DDI, VK2XGJ or VK3ELV. http://wsprnet.org/drupal/wsprnet/spots
**If Hawaii has storms on a given date, set the threshold at -14dB instead of -11dB.
4) Put numerical entries into the 4-quadrant diagram by counting dates from steps 1 and 2.
P+(+) is nr. of true positives, correct predicted dates of actual 630m PNW to SE-VK prop.
P-(+) is false negatives, nr days predicted wrong but did have actual 630m PNW to SE-VK prop.
P+(-) is false positives, nr days predicting 630m PNW to SE-VK prop but didn’t happen.
P-(-): All other days in the period are true negatives.
5) Report in a future blog post:.
Precision P+(+) / [P+(+) + P+(-)]. Goal: >50%
False negative rate P-(+) / [P+(+) + P-(+)] Goal: < 25%
6) Later, try adding Solar wind, and X-ray emission (flare) data as well as Dst, Bz, Kp and Ap to the predictor.
Possible web sites of interest are listed next:
http://wdc.kugi.kyoto-u.ac.jp/dst_realtime/201511/index.htmlKyoto Dst nT real-time .
http://solarham.net/Bz & solar wind from ACE satellite at inner Lagrange point.
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/HF_Systems/6/9VK: T Index ionosphere rel. monthly avg.
http://www.spacew.com/www/fof2.htmlCritical freq contours for whole world.
http://www.usairnet.com/weather/maps/current/barometric-pressure/Baro-pressure USA maybe useful for short path predictions?
CONCLUSION: Please offer your own 630m nighttime rule of thumb comments and suggestions for this PNW-VK path or some other path you would like us to tackle! Ideas can be revised as necessary as more info comes in. Thanks & GL!”
Additions, corrections, clarifications, etc? Send me a message on the Contact page or directly to KB5NJD <at> gmail dot (com)!