NJDTechnologies

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Current Operating Frequency and Mode

QRT but I'll be back tonight, WX permitting

SCHEDULED ACTIVITY: CQ 474.5 kHz CW by 1000z through sunrise most days, WX permitting

Higher latitude paths to Asia and Europe from North America remains strong as many ops wonder if this was the best session of the season; UA0SNV reported DJ0ABR, DK7FC, and PA0A

– Posted in: 630 Meter Daily Reports, 630 Meters

Last night was a very good session in North American, Asia and Europe.  Many stations reported “record” sessions with plentiful trans-Atlantic and trans-Pacific propagation.  In Europe, the “all land” path to UA0SNV was open, with three stations reported by Vasily.  There is a lot to report today so I will do my best to be brief.

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet through this session but Solarham is forecasting a K of 5 in the coming days so are these good conditions a precursor to upcoming active conditions?

planetary-k-index 030516

 

Kyoto DST 030516

 

Australia DST 030516

 

John, WA3ETD / WG2XKA, reports a record session and provided the following comments and map:

WG2XKA 030516

 

WG2XKA map 030516

WG2XKA session WSPR activity

 

Neil, W0YSE/7 / WG2XSV, reports very good conditions early and provided two sets of statistics, one prior to 0600z and the other from later in the session.

WG2XSV 030516a

 

WG2XSV 030516b

 

Ken, K5DNL / WG2XXM, received a report from John, F1AFJ, during this session.  Ken provided the following map and station details for John:

F1AFJ email 030516

F1AFJ 030516

F1AFJ session WSPR activity

 

Mike, WA3TTS, reports a strong night to the Northwest but limited reports from WH2XCR.

WA3TTS 030516

 

Doug. K4LY / WH2XZO, has been travelling and laments missing some of the great activity over the previous week.

WH2XZO 030516

Larry, W7IUV / WH2XGP, received a number of reports from JA1NQI-2, representing the third consecutive session of that path’s opening.  Ron, NI7J / WH2XND, provided a map capture on Larry’s behalf.

WH2XGP 030516

WH2XGP session WSPR activity

 

WH2XGP JA1NQI2 030516

WH2XGP, as reported by JA1NQI-2

 

Ward, K7PO / WH2XXP, experienced a strong session, with 51 unique stations reporting his signal.  Ron, NI7J / WH2XND, provided a map capture on Ward’s behalf.

WH2XXP 030516

WH2XXP session WSPR activity

 

WSPR participation was very high, with 82 MF WSPR stations observed at 0345z on the WSPRnet activity page.  I suspect that number was significantly higher as the evening progressed based on regional map views over the 24-hour period.  Two new or newer stations were observed:  KC6WFS and WY1R.  WY1R was reporting the old frequency of 503.9 kHz.  An email was sent this morning and Ron reports that he will try again tonight.  He is located in New York City, so noise is likely very high but I suspect its not unreasonable for him to decode strong stations in the Northeast.

Regional and continental WSPR breakdown’s follow:

NA 030516

North American 24-hour WSPR activity

 

EU 030516

European 24-hour WSPR activity

 

JA 030516

Japanese 24-hour WSPR activity

 

VK 030516

Australian 24-hour WSPR activity

 

There were no reports from the trans-African path during this session.

UA0SNV has once again reported three stations from continental western Europe over a very long land path.

UA0SNV 030516

UA0SNV 24-hour WSPR activity

 

PA0A UA0SNV 030516

PA0A, as reported by UA0SNV

 

DK7FC UA0SNV 030516

DK7FC, as reported by UA0SNV

 

DJ0ABR UA0SNV 030516

DJ0ABR, as reported by UA0SNV

 

EA8/DL9XJ provided a large number of reports for stations in Europe.  EA8/LA3JJ was reported as listening, but no reports were found in the WSPRnet database.

EA8_DL9XJ 030516

EA8/DL9XJ 24-hour WSPR activity

 

PA3ABK2 EA8_DL9XJ 030516

PA3ABK/2, as reported by EA8/DL9XJ

 

LA8AV EA8_DL9XJ 030516

LA8AV, as reported by EA8/DL9XJ

 

G8HUH EA8_DL9XJ 030516

G8HUH, as reported by EA8/DL9XJ

 

F6GEX EA8_DL9XJ 030516

F6GEX, as reported by EA8/DL9XJ

 

F1AFJ EA8_DL9XJ 030516

F1AFJ, as reported by EA8/DL9XJ

 

EA5DOM EA8_DL9XJ 030516

EA5DOM, as reported by EA8/DL9XJ

 

DK7FC EA8_DL9XJ 030516

DK7FC, as reported by EA8/DL9XJ

 

DJ0ABR EA8_DL9XJ 030516

DJ0ABR, as reported by EA8/DL9XJ

 

DH5RAE EA8_DL9XJ 030516

DH5RAE, as reported by EA8/DL9XJ

 

The trans-Atlantic path was active with numerous stations receiving reports.

WG2XPJ G3XKR 030516

WG2XPJ, as reported by G3XKR

 

WG2XXM F1AFJ 030516

WG2XXM, as reported by F1AFJ

 

WG2XKA PA0RDT 030516

WG2XKA, as reported by PA0RDT

 

WG2XKA G4FKK 030516

WG2XKA, as reported by G4FKK

 

WG2XKA G0LUJ 030516

WG2XKA, as reported by G0LUJ

 

WG2XKA G3XKR 030516

WG2XKA, as reported by G3XKR

 

Eden, ZF1EJ, was the only station present from the Caribbean during this session, reporting stations across North America as well as WH2XCR in Hawaii.

ZF1EJ 030516

ZF1EJ 24-hour WSPR activity

 

WH2XCR ZF1EJ 030516

WH2XCR, as reported by ZF1EJ

 

Laurence, KL7L / WE2XPQ, continues to have very good success with the path into Japan.  He was also reported by WB0VAK and reported WG2XXM and WG2XIQ during this session, often indicative of pretty good propagation.  KL7L was designated as receive-only.

WE2XPQ 030516

WE2XPQ 24-hour WSPR activity

 

WE2XPQ JH3XCU 030516

WE2XPQ, as reported by JH3XCU

 

WE2XPQ JH1INM 030516

WE2XPQ, as reported by JH1INM

 

WE2XPQ JA1NQI2 030516

WE2XPQ, as reported by JA1NQI-2

 

WE2XPQ WH2XCR 030516

WE2XPQ, as reported by WH2XCR

 

KL7L 030516

KL7L 24-hour WSPR activity

 

In the Pacific, Merv, K9FD/KH6 / WH2XCR, had another very consistent session, in spite of the JA path being cut off again.  The path to Australia and mainland US, particularly the Northeastern US, was strong.

WH2XCR 030516

WH2XCR 24-hour WSPR activity

 

WH2XCR VK4YB 030516

WH2XCR, as reported by VK4YB

 

WH2XCR VK2XGJ 030516

WH2XCR, as reported by VK2XGJ

 

WH2XCR WE2XPQ 030516

WH2XCR, as reported by WE2XPQ

 

WH2XCR KL7L 030516

WH2XCR, as reported by KL7L

 

In Australia, Phil, VK3ELV, and Roger, VK4YB, received DX reports from Japan and Hawaii.

VK3ELV WH2XCR 030516

VK3ELV, as reported by WH2XCR

 

VK4YB WH2XCR 030516

VK4YB, as reported by WH2XCR

 

VK3ELV TNUKJPM 030516

VK3ELV, as reported by TNUKJPM

 

VK3ELV JH3XCU 030516

VK3ELV, as reported by JH3XCU

 

VK3ELV JH1INM 030516

VK3ELV, as reported by JH1INM

 

VK3ELV JA1NQI2 030516

VK3ELV, as reported by JA1NQI-2

 

Finally, Jim, W5EST, provides part 2 of a very interesting discussion entitled, “TESTABLE RULE OF THUMB FOR N.Am.-VK PROPAGATION?”:

“The Feb. 23 blog outlined how a 4-quadrant diagram can be used to test propagation predictions. In the Feb. 29 blog, this method was used with actual 630m daytime propagation data.

Today I outline a workplan not for daytime prop, but instead for one category of nighttime long paths: from Pacific Northwest (PNW) to SE Australia.  Please critique this workplan and e-mail us if you see some flaw or improvement to make.

Plan of Work: PNW to SE-VK, 630m WSPR Predictor

1)     Tabulate 2015 dates of reported 630m propagation PNW to SE-VK by combining information from the following sources:

–Find KB5NJD blog mention of at least one instance of PNW to SE-VK propagation, starting 8/1/2015.  Use search feature in upper right corner to search the blog on keyword “VK” or “Australia”. Then doublecheck each blog article having that keyword.  http://njdtechnologies.net/the-daytime-surprises-on-630-meters-continue/

600MRG: Check for any entries referring somehow to PNW to SE-VK propagation and add each date of occurrence starting 8/1/2015.

— Cherry-pick W5EST propagation notes for dates of PNW to SE-VK propagation assembled from the WSPR database and ON4KST reflector starting 8/1/2015.  These notes also show PNW decodes in Hawaii.

2) Tabulate 2015 dates of VK thunderstorm activity in the eastern half of Australia.

My log summarized daily views of  http://wwlln.net/WWLLN_movies/Movie_of_Lightning_in_Pacific_BIG.gif

3)  Start with this 630m predictor (proposed on 600mrg reflector 8/22/15): 

       IF PNW-Hawaii decodes*>= 4 w/ SNRs >= -11dB** during 0830-1100z on date

THEN PNW to SE-VK PROP(Date)=TRUE.

 Note: 0830-1100z is the first half of the PNW-vk time window. If no active Hawaii RX, try for VK anyhow.

*Expect no 630m VK decodes this night if no 630m VK RX is active that has ever decoded N.Am. See WSPR database for RX activity by VK2DDI, VK2XGJ or VK3ELV. http://wsprnet.org/drupal/wsprnet/spots

**If Hawaii has storms on a given date, set the threshold at -14dB instead of -11dB.

4)  Put numerical entries into the 4-quadrant diagram by counting dates from steps 1 and 2.

P+(+) is nr. of true positives, correct predicted dates of actual 630m PNW to SE-VK prop.

P-(+) is false negatives, nr days predicted wrong but did have actual 630m PNW to SE-VK prop.

P+(-) is false positives, nr days predicting 630m PNW to SE-VK prop but didn’t happen.

P-(-): All other days in the period are true negatives.

5) Report in a future blog post:.

Precision P+(+) / [P+(+) + P+(-)].  Goal: >50%

False negative rate P-(+) / [P+(+) + P-(+)] Goal: < 25%

6)  Later, try adding Solar wind, and X-ray emission (flare) data as well as Dst, Bz, Kp and Ap to the predictor.

Possible web sites of interest are listed next:

http://www.solarham.net/solarwind.htmSolar wind

http://www.tesis.lebedev.ru/en/sun_flares.html?m=1&d=8&y=2016Flares

http://wdc.kugi.kyoto-u.ac.jp/dst_realtime/201511/index.htmlKyoto Dst nT real-time .

http://solarham.net/Bz & solar wind from ACE satellite at inner Lagrange point.

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/station-k-and-indicesKp and Ap.

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/wsa-enlil-solar-wind-predictionCME.

http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/HF_Systems/6/9VK: T Index ionosphere rel. monthly avg.

http://www.spacew.com/www/fof2.htmlCritical freq contours for whole world.

http://www.usairnet.com/weather/maps/current/barometric-pressure/Baro-pressure USA maybe useful for short path predictions?

CONCLUSION: Please offer your own 630m nighttime rule of thumb comments and suggestions for this PNW-VK path or some other path you would like us to tackle!  Ideas can be revised as necessary as more info comes in.       Thanks & GL!”

 

 

Additions, corrections, clarifications, etc?  Send me a message on the Contact page or directly to KB5NJD <at> gmail dot (com)!